History Repeats Itself? Let's Wait and See

This blog does not discuss politics; but I was struck today by the news that an unknown engineering professor who has lived much of his adult life in the U.S.A. has been named interim prime minister of Libya. His name is Abdul (or Abdel) Rahim (or Abdurrhamin) al-Kib, (or al-Keeb, or el-Keib). (Apparently Mummar Ghadaffi is not the only Libyan whose name is difficult to transliterate. This must be a national problem. Perhaps Libyans should have been given Italian names during the colonial period.) He faces many challenges, not the least of which is the disbandment of the “three hundred militia groups” mentioned in the news report.

The reason I was struck by this news is that by pure coincidence the material I taught in my Europe 1870-1945 course today was the first part of the Russian Revolutions of 1917, specifically the February Revolution (in March) and the establishment of the Provisional Government headed by a moderate politician, Prince Georgi Lvov, who had little name recognition or popularity in the country as a whole. He was replaced four months later by Mr. Kerensky, who was replaced three months after that by Mr. Lenin—and the rest, as they say, is history.

I advised my students, as I advise you who read this, to pay attention to what happens in Libya in the months ahead. No historian will presume to predict the future. But it would not at all surprise me if we see Mr. al-Kib (etc.) vanish into the limbo of forgotten names—although with luck he will return to his work at the Petroleum Institute rather than receive a less desirable retirement package, such as dangling from a lamppost.

At any rate, it will be interesting to see if what happens in Libya follows a frequent pattern in revolutions, i.e. the replacement of the initial moderates by increasingly radical successors.

I certainly hope that Mr. el-Keib (etc.) succeeds in disbanding the 300 militias (who counts militias in Libya? is there a government agency?) and brings to that troubled land the advantages of a free, open, pluralistic democracy, freedom of speech and of assembly, complete religious freedom, and cooperation with the civilized nations of the West.

I also hope I win the Powerball grand prize next Saturday.

To help this nice man achieve the popularity he will need if he is to succeed, Mr. al-Keeb (etc.) deserves slogans designed to rally the people to his moderate cause. Here are some, which I invite my Libyan readers to set to music:

1) His name is spelled Keeb, Keib, or Kib
But what the heck—he loves our Lib
ya. He is just the man we need,
So hail to thee, Kib, Keib, or Keeb.

2) He’s patriotic. He loves our Libya.
Right from his cranium down to his tibia.
We all should join his winning team:
Let’s get behind Abdul Raheem!

3) Abdul – Abdel – Abdurrahim
We hope you’re more than what you seem.
Disarm militias! Let freedom ring!
Then stage a coup and you’ll be King!

4) He’ll rally Libya. He’ll never fib ya
If you need humor, he’ll gladly rib ya.
I can’t think up more silly rhyme
But hail to Abdul one more time!